The lifepo4 battery market has entered a new growth cycle
Since 2020, the lifepo4 battery market has begun to pick up and entered a new growth cycle. Tesla, equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries, quickly stimulated the lithium iron phosphate market. In early 2021, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy was officially implemented, indicating the direction for OEMs to plan new energy vehicles. After 2021, lithium iron phosphate batteries will have a more robust development in new energy vehicles, energy storage, two-wheelers, heavy trucks, and electric ships. This article summarizes the production and sales of lithium iron phosphate materials, market concentration, price trends, and the new development direction of lifepo4 battery companies.
With the continuous development of the global economy, the energy crisis has gradually deepened, and the awareness of environmental protection has continued to increase. The new energy and environmentally friendly low-carbon power battery industry has developed rapidly, and lithium-ion batteries have become numerous power batteries due to their excellent performance and moderate manufacturing costs¡ªmainstream development direction. With continuous breakthroughs in materials and battery performance technology and the gradual decline in production costs, lithium-ion batteries will gradually strengthen their advantages of light weight, long cruising range, wide application range, high energy density, and high output power, and they will be used as the main power battery. Development is the main type of power battery for new energy vehicles today. At present, the cathode materials for lithium-ion power batteries in industrial applications at home and abroad include lithium iron phosphate (from now on referred to as LFP), lithium manganate, ternary (lithium nickel cobalt manganate, lithium nickel cobalt aluminate), etc., among them, lithium iron phosphate has grown rapidly in China due to its higher safety and stability, longer cycle life and lower cost advantages, With the rapid development of new energy vehicles and power batteries, the lithium iron phosphate material industry has continued to mature in technology and technology in recent years, and homogenized competition has emerged. Based on rapid technological iteration and industrial ecological cooperation, the lithium iron phosphate market has been accelerating in steady growth. Concentrating on leading enterprises, the industry concentration is further improved. Lithium iron phosphate has inherent cost advantages, and there is a tenacious living space in the cost-sensitive market. The superposition of some new technical solutions can solve the performance shortcomings to a certain extent. In the past year, the demand for lithium iron phosphate industry chain has recovered, the supply and demand pattern has been improved, and the rebound of lithium iron phosphate in the power battery market will be further strengthened.
Applications of lithium iron phosphate batteries
The current application areas of lithium iron phosphate batteries include new energy vehicles, energy storage, 5G base stations, two-wheeled vehicles, heavy trucks, electric ships and other fields. Among them, the application of new energy vehicles accounts for the largest proportion, including new energy passenger vehicles, new energy Passenger cars and special vehicles for new energy; the energy storage field currently uses lithium iron phosphate batteries accounting for more than 94%, including new products and echelon batteries, which are mainly used in UPS, backup power supply and communication energy storage fields; the future development of the electric ship market is expected to be relatively high. Well, all applications in this field are currently lithium iron phosphate batteries; lithium iron phosphate batteries have also begun to be used in the two-wheeler battery swap market. As the market begins to further get rid of policy and move towards real marketization, opportunities for lithium iron phosphate batteries will also be further opened.
Application prospects of lithium iron phosphate batteries
1. In the applications of electric vehicles
Since 2020, the lithium iron phosphate battery market has begun to pick up and entered a new growth cycle. At the beginning of last year, Tesla and CATL entered into the "cobalt-free battery", bringing the lithium iron phosphate battery back to the center of the stage again. Tesla electric vehicles equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries undoubtedly quickly opened the prelude to the strong return of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the power battery market. Driven by the substantial increase in the sales volume of many models supporting lithium iron phosphate batteries such as the domestic Model 3, BYD Han EV, Hongguang MINI EV, etc., including Ningde Times, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Ruipu Energy, Penghui Energy and other battery companies, The installed capacity of LFP batteries in the passenger car market has increased significantly. According to industry statistics, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery shipments in total power battery shipments has risen from 28% in 2019 to about 35-40% in 2020.
At the beginning of the new year of 2021, the latest industry trends indicate that LFP batteries will set off a wave in the passenger car field in 2021. From the industrial policy perspective, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy was officially implemented in early 2021, indicating the direction for OEMs in the planning of new energy vehicles. From the perspective of the general trend, new energy vehicles have completed the transformation of the industrial development mode driven by national policies to the development mode driven by market demand. In 2021, the new energy vehicle subsidy standard will be reduced by 20% based on 2020. Implementing the subsidy policy and eliminating the transitional period of superimposed subsidies will help promote the normal growth of the annual production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2021. From the perspective of industrial layout, head battery companies such as CATL, BYD, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech are all actively increasing the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries. The CTP batteries and blade batteries based on the lithium iron phosphate solution launched by CATL and BYD have been recognized by the market and are currently actively expanding their lithium iron phosphate battery production capacity. In addition, Guoxuan Hi-Tech has also upgraded its LFP battery products. It recently introduced 210Wh/Kg lithium iron phosphate soft pack batteries and JTM technology. Major mainstream battery companies are significantly expanding LFP battery production capacity and product upgrades, and will seize market opportunities in 2021 in terms of supporting LFP batteries for passenger cars. In general, as major passenger car OEMs accelerate the launch of LFP models and battery companies further reduce manufacturing costs, the competitive advantage of LFP batteries in the passenger car field will be further highlighted, and the ranking of power battery installed capacity in the domestic passenger car field will also be A new round of adjustments will appear.
In order to estimate the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in my country from 2021 to 2025, we make the following assumptions: First, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country will maintain steady growth from 2021 to 2023; the synergy of high-level autonomous driving and new energy vehicles from 2024 to 2025 The effect is significant. By 2025, the scale of production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 5.5 million, and commercial vehicles and special vehicles will be close to 6 million, basically achieving the preset goals of the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)". Secondly, in pure electric passenger cars, A00-class models maintain about 20% of the market share, and the penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate batteries, relying on cost advantages, is increasing year by year, and finally dominates; A0¡«A1 class models maintain about 50% of the market share, considering the overall space , Battery life, cost, power and other factors, the proportion of lithium iron steadily rising, in general, lithium iron phosphate power batteries usher in the use and positioning of the passenger car field double increase. Finally, the battery charge of each type of pure electric passenger vehicle has increased slightly year by year. Based on the above estimates, by 2025, the domestic installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate power batteries is expected to reach 136GWh, and the share of lithium iron phosphate in the power battery market is expected to reach between 40% and 50%. If you look at the world, considering that leading OEMs have also changed their attitudes towards lithium iron phosphate batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries may have a broader market space. By then, the global annual output of lithium iron phosphate used only for power batteries may approach 50 About ten thousand tons. In short, from the mainstream selection in the early stage of industrial development, the rapid development of the industry to the gradual maturity period, lithium iron phosphate power batteries are about to usher in vigorous development, and it is expected that the foundation will last forever.
In the applications of communication and energy storage system
The application of lithium iron phosphate batteries in 5G base stations has also shown a rapid growth trend, opening up new market opportunities. In the first half of 2020, China Tower and China Mobile have successively bid for 5G base station backup power lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage projects. The winning bidders include Penghui Energy, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Narada Power, Zhongtian Technology, Haistar, Shuangdeng Group, Vision Power, Coslight Power, Lilang Battery, etc. The "China Tower and China Telecom's Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery Products for Standby Power Joint Bidding Announcement" was officially released, and the estimated bidding volume is 2.09GWh. In the future, China will need to build or renovate at least 14.38 million base stations. Estimated with a single station energy consumption of 2700W and emergency 4h, the 5G base station energy storage market will provide 155GWh of demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the future, and the corresponding market size will exceed 100 billion yuan. .
